At the beginning, little was known about the virus, but policy recommendations were urgently necessary. Unfortunately, mistakes, when they occur, give ammunition to skeptics. Mistakes encourage laypeople to trust their own anecdotal observations — or the baseless assertions of irresponsible people around them — rather than authoritative sources. The Donald Trumps of the world take advantage of that. But to discount rigorous methods, objective standards and open-minded inquiry — to discount science and expertise — is Dark Ages thinking.
He previously served 11 years as editor of the editorial page and was also a former editor of the Op-Ed page and the Sunday Opinion section. He is a graduate of Harvard University. Op-Ed: Glasgow delivers hope at a crucial moment in the climate battle.
Op-Ed: Think Facebook is invincible? They have the same repertoire of self-justifications that everyone has, and are no more inclined than anyone else to revise their beliefs about the way the world works, or ought to work, just because they made a mistake.
The Huffington Post summarizes :. Foxes know many things while hedgehogs know one big thing. The world is a messy, complex, and contingent place with countless intervening variables and confounding factors, which foxes are comfortable with but hedgehogs are not. But what about the 10, hours technique? Did you really just spend 10, hours in order to have only a slightly better than random chance at predicting the outcome of your chosen field? View 3 excerpts, cites background.
A novel approach to minimize error in the medical domain: Cognitive neuroscientific insights into training. Deciphering the human condition: the rise of cognitive forensics. This shift was seen as an inevitable response to the mounting pressure resulting from … Expand. The ambition to be scientific: human expert performance and objectivity. Highly Influenced. View 16 excerpts, cites background. Paradoxes of the mind.
View 1 excerpt, cites background. Navigational expertise may compromise anterograde associative memory. View 1 excerpt, references background. View 3 excerpts, references background.
They open with a far less weighty matter than whether we should have escalated our involvement in Vietnam, namely what experts might erroneously tell you if you were wondering whether to get an Xbox or a PlayStation 3.
For sure, there are attributes of each product which are directly comparable, such as a 60 GB hard drive for the Xbox versus a GB hard drive for the PlayStation.
But there are many elements which describe just one of the products, such as the BluRay video playback of the PlayStation. The core problem with an expert dissecting the differences, the researcher found, involves an impulse to "maximize comparability," or stretching to make comparisons and falsely recalling features that simply aren't there for one product.
This consistent "false recall" was, they concluded, partly fueled by an expert's sense of accountability and resulting pressure to be, well, an expert. Such an impulse was not found in non-experts and, interestingly, in experts when the researchers told them not to be worried about consequences as they answered a study's questionnaire.
Their false recall call rate went down! They tested their basic hypotheses in four experiments.
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